Conference Abstract: Potential Implications of Autonomous Vehicles on Personal Vehicle Ownership and Demand for Public Transit

This is the abstract submitted for a presentation given at the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Transportation and Development Conference held June 9-12 2019 in Alexandria, Virginia.  The presentation was given by Christos Gkartzonikas, based on his work on the CCAT project Public Acceptance and Socio-Economic Analysis of Shared Autonomous Vehicles: Implications for Policy and Planning.
 

The rise of (shared) autonomous vehicles (AVs/SAVs) can alter travel demand, potentially decreasing the need for personal vehicle ownership and impacting transit ridership.  However, the AVs' impacts on travel demand and substitution patterns are not well understood to date.  Furthermore, it is likely that impacts will vary by socioeconomic groups, such as Millennials who favor shared modes of transportation.  This presentation will describe the results of a study on assessing the potential implications of SAVs on personal vehicle ownership and the demand for other modes, such as public transit.  Specifically, this study estimated econometric models to assess the likelihood that people would cede their personal vehicles by evaluating the intention to postpone the purchase of non-AVs and the intention to switch from public transportation in favor of using ride-sharing services operated by AVs.  Using data from two stated-preference surveys conducted in two urban areas with different transportation systems and densities - Chicago, IL, a city with advanced multimodal system, and Indianapolis, IN, a less dense and more automobile-oriented city - this study found that substitution patterns vary across socio-demographic, travel patterns and attitudinal characteristics using data from two stated-preference surveys conducted in two urban areas with different transportation systems and densities; such as affinity to innovativeness and subjective norms.  The results of this study can enhance our understanding towards potential impacts of AVs/SAVs on travel demand and patterns.